Rural Mainstreet Index Falls Below  Growth Neutral for Third Consecutive Month

April 2026 Survey Results at-a-Glance:

-The overall RMI dropped below growth neutral for the third consecutive month.
-More than half of bankers reported that their local economy was in a recession.
-Jeff Bonnett, CEO of Havana National Bank in Illinois stated that, “Our local economy is driven by ag, and right now, our local economy is suffering.”
-Agriculture equipment sales sank below growth neutral for the 32nd straight month.
-Approximately, 62.5% of bank CEOs reported that the $12 billion Farm Bridge Assistance Program has had only a slightly positive to no impact on the rural economy. 
-Almost eight of 10 bankers recommend no change in short-term interest rates at the Federal Reserve’s April 28-29 meetings. 
-According to International Trade Association (ITA) data, regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first two months of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, increased by 5.0% to $1.88 billion.

OMAHA, Nebraska (April 16, 2026) - According to the April survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) dropped below growth neutral for the third consecutive month.

Overall: The region’s overall reading for April improved to a weak 47.9 from March’s 40.9. This marks the 14th time since January 2025 that the index has moved below the growth neutral threshold. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

 “Weakness in farm commodity prices and elevated agriculture input costs are spilling over into the rural business community. Approximately, 54.2% of bankers reported that their local economy was in a recession,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Jeff Bonnett, CEO of Havana National Bank in Illinois stated that, “Our local economy is driven by ag, and right now, our local economy is suffering.”

Farming and ranchland prices: For the third time in 2026, the region’s farm and ranchland price index sank below growth neutral to 48.0 from 50.2 in March. “Though farm and ranchland values have been holding up much better than farm income, weak farm income, lower farm liquidity and tougher credit standards have pushed farmland values lower,” said Goss. 

 Jim Eckert, Executive VP and Trust Officer of Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Illinois, reported that, “Recent rains have improved the prospects for the 2026 crop, although with depleted ground water in our area, timely rains will be required to generate a good crop.”

According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first two months of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, increased by 5.0% to $1.88 billion. 

 Farm equipment sales: The April farm equipment sales index slumped to a very weak 26.1, down from 28.6 in March. This is the 32nd straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. 

“The 2026 conflict in Iran has created even more volatility in the agricultural sector, impacting agricultural equipment sales by tightening farmer operating margins via increasing input costs and shifting farmer planting decisions,” said Goss.

Banking: The April loan volume index declined to a still strong 65.2 from March’s 78.6. The checking deposit index fell to 60.9 from 64.3 in March. The region’s index for certificates of deposits (CDs) increased to 56.5 from 52.4 in March. 

Hiring: The new hiring index for March increased to 50.0 from 49.9 in March. Job gains for non-farm rural employers have remained soft for the last several months. “In April, only 4.3% of bankers reported an upturn in hiring for the month,” said Goss. 

According to Bonnett, “Life on (Rural) Main Street in the communities that we serve here in West Central Illinois is still a struggle as our grain farmers face the ongoing challenge of operating just at or below break-even to raise their crops.” 

As expected, Bonnett indicated that this has a direct and negative impact on small businesses in the area. “The 11% increase in gas prices at the pump is not helping but adding to this challenge,” reported Bonnett. 

Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. Even so, the April confidence index rose to a weak 39.1 from 29.5 in March. “In spite of $12 billion of federal farm support, weak grain prices, higher input prices and expected negative farm cash flows continued to weigh on banker confidence,” said Goss. 

Approximately, 62.5% of bank CEOs reported that the $12 billion Farm Bridge Assistance Program has had only a slightly positive to no impact on the rural economy. 

Home and retail sales: Weak income from grain, combined with escalating input costs, spillover into the housing and retail sales. April home sales fell to 45.8 from 54.5 in March. Regional retail sales sank to 39.1 from 43.2 in March. 

The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index that covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. Goss and the late Bill McQuillan, former Chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America, created the monthly economic survey and launched it in January 2006.

Below are the state reports:

Colorado: The state’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) for April climbed to 50.9 from 40.1 in March. The farm and ranchland price index for April improved to 51.2 from March’s 49.5. The state’s new hiring index increased to 51.4 from 49.4 in March. According to trade data from the ITA, Colorado exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first two months of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, fell by 42.6% to $51.9 million.

Illinois: The state’s April Rural Mainstreet Index increased to 43.4 from 39.1 in March. The farm and ranchland price index for April sank to 43.2 from March’s 48.3. The state’s new hiring index for April fell to 42.9 from 48.1 in March. According to trade data from the ITA, Illinois exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first two months of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, expanded by 2.4% to $536.7 million.

Iowa: April’s RMI for the state rose to 46.4, up from March’s 39.7. Iowa’s farm and ranchland price index for April fell to 46.4 from 51.0 in March. Iowa’s new hiring index for April declined to 46.3 from March’s 48.7. According to trade data from the ITA, Iowa exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first two months of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, climbed by 29.9% to $368.1 million.

Kansas: The Kansas RMI for April soared to 56.9 from 40.3 in March. The state’s farm and ranchland price index climbed to 57.6 from 49.6 in March. The new hiring index for Kansas jumped to 58.2 from 49.5 in March. According to trade data from the ITA, Kansas exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first two months of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, climbed by 75.4% to $352.8 million.

Minnesota: The April RMI for Minnesota dropped to 41.3 from March’s 42.2. Minnesota’s farm and ranchland price index sank to 41.0 from 52.1 in March. The new hiring index for April fell to 40.5 from 52.2 in March. According to trade data from the ITA, Minnesota exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first two months of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, climbed by 14.5% to $157.0 million.

Missouri: The April RMI for the state decreased to 41.9 from 45.3 in March. The farm and ranchland price index for April fell to 41.6 from March’s 55.9. The state’s new hiring gauge for April sank to 41.2 from March’s 55.6. According to trade data from the ITA, Missouri exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first two months of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, fell by 21.3% to $106.4 million.

Nebraska: The state’s Rural Mainstreet Index for April jumped to 53.9 from 38.4 in March. The state’s farm and ranchland price index for April advanced to 54.4 from 52.8 in March. Nebraska’s new hiring index climbed to 54.8 from 47.3 in March. According to trade data from the ITA, Nebraska exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first two months of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, sank by 18.4% to $188.4 million.

North Dakota: The state’s overall RMI for April increased to 44.9 from 40.0 in March. The state’s farm and ranchland price index for April declined to 44.8 from 48.8 in March. The state’s new hiring index fell to 44.6 from 49.2 in March. According to trade data from the ITA, North Dakota exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first two months of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, declined by 29.0% to $104.6 million.

South Dakota: The April RMI for South Dakota increased to 47.9 from 40.3 in March. The state’s farm and ranchland price index fell to 48.0 from 49.9 in March. South Dakota’s April new hiring index sank to 48.0 from 49.5 in March. According to trade data from the ITA, South Dakota exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first two months of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, fell by 61.3% to $16.2 million.

Wyoming: The overall RMI for Wyoming in April increased to 46.5 from 39.4 in March. The April farm and ranchland price index slipped to 48.2 from 48.8 in March. Wyoming’s new hiring index increased to 48.9 from March’s 48.4. According to trade data from the ITA, Wyoming exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first two months of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, fell by 4.6% to $1.0 million.