Rural Mainstreet Index Plummets for July: Weak Commodity Prices Cited as Top Threat to Farm Economy

July 2026 Survey Results at-a-Glance:
-The region’s overall reading sank below growth neutral for the fifth time in the past six months. 
-For a third straight month, the farm and ranchland value index expanded above growth neutral but dipped in July.
-Low and negative cash flows combined with trade/tariff volatility pushed the regional farm equipment sales index below growth neutral for the 35th straight month. 
-Despite weak farm and ranch net cash flows, approximately 53.7% of bankers indicated that their banks had not tightened credit standards in the last three months. The remaining 46.3% reported tightening standards “somewhat.”
-More than half, or 52.0%, of bank CEOs reported that very weak commodity prices will be the greatest challenge to the agriculture economy moving forward.
-More than half, or 57.9%, of bank CEOs indicated that their banks would use, or are using, AI for fraud detection. 

OMAHA, Nebraska (July 16, 2026) - According to the July survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral for the fifth time in the past six months. Readings range between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral. 

Overall: The region’s overall reading for July plummeted to 42.1 from June’s 52.6.

 “More than half, or 52.0%, of bank CEOs reported that very weak commodity prices will be the greatest challenge to the agriculture economy moving forward,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

 Farming and ranchland prices: For a third straight month, the farm and ranchland index climbed above growth neutral but dipped to 52.8 from 55.3 in June. “Though farm and ranchland values have been holding up much better than farm and ranch income, weak farm income, lower farm liquidity and somewhat tougher credit standards have restrained growth in farmland values,” said Goss. 

 Jim Eckert, Executive VP and Trust Officer of Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Illinois, reported that, “Grain prices/cost of inputs are a major concern.”

 Farm equipment sales: The July farm equipment sales index sank to a very weak 27.8 from June’s 28.9. This is the 35th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. 

“The 2026 conflict in Iran and tariffs on imported steel/aluminum continue to create more volatility in the agricultural sector. This volatility, along with low and negative cash flows, have reduced producers’ willingness to purchase new farm equipment,” said Goss.

Banking: The July loan volume index decreased to 73.7 from 76.3 in June. The checking deposit index dropped to 50.0 from June’s 57.9. The region’s index for certificates of deposits (CDs) rose to 52.6 from 47.4 in June. 

Despite weak farm and ranch net cash flows, only 53.7% of bankers indicated that their banks had not tightened credit standards. The remaining 46.3% reported tightening standards “somewhat.” 

More than half, or 57.9%, of bank CEOs indicated that their banks would use, or are using AI, for fraud detection. 

Hiring: The new hiring index for July increased to 50.1 from 47.4 in June. The rural job market for farms, ranches and non-farm rural employers has remained weak for the last several months. “In July, only 10.5% of bankers reported an increase in hiring for the month,” said Goss. 

Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The July economic confidence index slumped to 34.2 from June’s 42.1. “Weak grain prices, higher input costs and volatility stemming from the Iran war continue to weigh on banker confidence,” said Goss. 

Home and retail sales: Weak income from grain, combined with escalating input costs, spilled over into the housing and retail sales markets. July home sales fell to 44.7 from June’s 50.0. The regional retail sales index fell to 41.6 from 42.1 in June. 

The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index that covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. Goss and the late Bill McQuillan, former Chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America, created the monthly economic survey and launched it in January 2006.

Below are the state reports:

 Colorado: The state’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) for July fell to 41.5 from June’s 52.3. The farm and ranchland price index for July declined to 52.3 from 54.9 in June. The state’s new hiring index increased to 49.9 from 47.1 in June. According to the USDA, Colorado’s top five exported agriculture products (beef, pork, corn, dairy, soybean) fell by 10.2% for the first two quarters of fiscal 2026, compared to the same period in 2025. 

 Illinois: The state’s July Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank to 42.0 from June’s 53.1. The farm and ranchland price index for July declined to 53.2 from June’s 55.8. The state’s new hiring index for July climbed to 50.7 from June’s 47.9. According to the USDA, Illinois’ top four exported agriculture products (soybean, corn, distillers grain, pork) fell by 27.6% for the first two quarters of fiscal 2026, compared to the same period in 2025. Jim Eckert, Executive VP and Trust Officer of Anchor State Bank in Anchor, reported that, “Recent heavy rains have replenished our ground water levels from prior three years of semi-drought. Now our producers are having difficulty spraying crops for weeds. Corn is tasseling, but soybeans are way behind prior years.” 

Iowa: July’s RMI for the state slumped to 41.4 from June’s 52.3. Iowa’s farm and ranchland price index for July declined to 52.3 from 54.9 in June. Iowa’s new hiring index for July improved to 49.9 from June’s 47.1. According to the USDA, Iowa’s top four exported agriculture products (corn, pork, ethanol, soybean meal) expanded by 11.2% for the first two quarters of fiscal 2026, compared to the same period in 2025. 

Kansas: The Kansas RMI for July fell to 43.7 from June’s 55.1. The state’s farm and ranchland price index dropped to 55.5 from 58.2 in June. The new hiring index for Kansas improved to 52.9 from 49.9 in June. According to the USDA, Kansas’s top four exported agriculture products (beef, corn, pork, wheat) expanded by 16.9% for the first two quarters of fiscal 2026, compared to the same period in 2025. 

 Minnesota: The July RMI for Minnesota dropped to 42.1 from 53.1 in June. Minnesota’s farm and ranchland price index declined to 53.2 from June’s 55.8. The new hiring index for July increased to 50.7 from 47.9 in June. According to the USDA, Minnesota’s top five exported agriculture products (dairy, soybean, pork, corn, other feed) expanded by 17.8% for the first two quarters of fiscal 2026, compared to the same period in 2025.

 Missouri: The July RMI for the state fell to 41.9 from 52.9 in June. The farm and ranchland price index for July decreased to 53.0 from June’s 55.6. The state’s new hiring gauge for July increased to 50.6 from 47.7 in June. According to the USDA, Missouri’s top five exported agriculture products (corn, soybean, pork, dog/cat food, other feeds) expanded by 0.3% for the first two quarters of fiscal 2026, compared to the same period in 2025.

Nebraska: The state’s Rural Mainstreet Index for July fell to 42.6 from 52.2 in June. The state’s farm and ranchland price index for July declined to 52.2 from 54.8 in June. Nebraska’s new hiring index increased to 49.8 from 47.0 in June. According to the USDA, Nebraska’s top five exported agriculture products (beef, corn, soybean, pork, soybean meal) fell by 9.9% for the first two quarters of fiscal 2026, compared to the same period in 2025.

North Dakota: The state’s overall RMI for July dropped to 40.1 from 50.7 in June. The state’s farm and ranchland price index for July decreased to 50.5 from June’s 53.0. The state’s new hiring index rose to 48.2 from 45.5 in June. According to the USDA, North Dakota’s top four exported agriculture products (soybean, wheat, ethanol, corn) expanded by 13.7% for the first two quarters of fiscal 2026, compared to the same period in 2025.

South Dakota: The July RMI for South Dakota declined to 43.4 from 54.7 in June. The state’s farm and ranchland price index decreased to 55.0 from June’s 57.7. South Dakota’s July new hiring index climbed to 52.5 from 49.5 in June. According to the USDA, South Dakota’s top four exported agriculture products (ethanol, pork, dairy, distillers grain) expanded by 12.4% for the first two quarters of fiscal 2026, compared to the same period in 2025.

Wyoming: The overall RMI for Wyoming for July fell to 39.0 from 49.3 in June. The July farm and ranchland price index declined to 48.9 from 51.3 in June. Wyoming’s new hiring index increased to 46.7 from June’s 44.0. According to the USDA, Wyoming’s top three exported agriculture products (bakery, live animals, food preparations) expanded by 207.1% for the first two quarters of fiscal 2026, compared to the same period in 2025.